Empire Rising: Spain

Duke Serrano nodded, with a trace of regret flashing in his eyes.

Carlo smiled without saying much. He certainly understood what Duke Serrano was thinking about—recovering the small piece of land in southern Spain, Gibraltar.

Ever since the British seized Gibraltar amidst Spain’s crisis, Gibraltar had been a thorn in the side of every Spanish general, constantly seeking to remove it.

Unfortunately, after Britain occupied Gibraltar, its national strength became increasingly powerful, while Spain, having lost Gibraltar, gradually weakened from a mighty global power and remained in a rather awkward position.

To say Spain is strong, Europe can easily find countries stronger than Spain. To say Spain is weak, compared to those genuinely small countries, Spain appears quite powerful.

Being neither at the top nor the bottom, such an awkward position has left Spain without much sense of presence, whether in the future European Union or on the world stage.

As the King of Spain, Carlo naturally wanted to recover Gibraltar, a feat incomparable to ordinary territorial expansions.

It wouldn’t be an exaggeration to say that if Carlo could recover Gibraltar, he would become one of the most influential monarchs in Spain, and no family would threaten the Savoy family’s rule in Spain.

However, the British Empire’s strength is too formidable; relying solely on Spain’s power to recover Gibraltar is impossible.

Offending the British now is clearly not a wise decision, especially since the British are unlikely to join the war between the Ottoman Empire and Tsarist Russia.

As for the actual opportunity to recover Gibraltar, aside from the British being deeply engaged in the Boer War, perhaps only during World War I or World War II, when Britain is busy dealing with global conflicts, can Gibraltar be recovered through an exchange of interests.

After Tsarist Russia declared war on the Ottoman Empire, all European countries focused on the British Empire’s stance.

If the British were to join in, this Balkan war would instantly transform into a rivalry between two great powers, and the war’s impact would expand throughout Europe.

If the British choose not to participate, Tsarist Russia would rapidly defeat the Ottoman Empire and extend its influence throughout the Balkan Peninsula.

Would Austria-Hungary, also eyeing the Balkan Peninsula, allow Tsarist Russia to do so? If the British Empire did not join, would Austria-Hungary intervene to prevent Tsarist Russia’s expansion?

The Balkan Peninsula indeed deserves its name as Europe’s powder keg. Although decades remain before World War I, Europe’s powder keg already holds considerable power.

Several consecutive days had passed without any clear statement from the British Government, its stance quite ambiguous.

Austria-Hungary naturally couldn’t just leap into the fire pit, turning the Balkan battlefield into a solo performance by Tsarist Russia.

Although no explicit stance was made, Austria-Hungary urgently inquired about the British Empire’s position while ensuring the support of its allies, the German Empire and the Kingdom of Spain.

For Emperor Franz Joseph I, the Balkan Peninsula was an absolute sphere of influence that Austria-Hungary couldn’t lose.

If Russia’s power expanded into the Balkan Peninsula, Austria-Hungary would be entirely constrained within its present territorial range, forever remaining a middle-tier global power.

Though Germany is said to be situated in a battleground, Austria-Hungary’s geographical position isn’t much better than Germany’s.

Austria-Hungary has five neighbors, with northern and eastern neighbors being the German Empire and Tsarist Russia, both traditional great European powers.

Its southwestern neighbor is the newly emerged Kingdom of Italy, while the southern neighbors are Romania and the Ottoman Empire.

Among all its neighbors, only the Ottoman Empire and Romania in the Balkan direction are fairly easy to bully.

Even the relatively small Italy proves challenging for Austria-Hungary to bully.

Before Italy unified, Austria-Hungary occupied large swathes of Italian lands. After Italy unified, further expansion towards Italy became extremely difficult for Austria-Hungary.

Although Italy is just a lesser great power, it is still a great power nonetheless. Even if Italy’s strength pales in comparison with Austria-Hungary, other nations clearly don’t wish for Austria-Hungary to annex the Kingdom of Italy.

Expansion towards Germany and Russia is equally impossible, as neither country’s comprehensive strength is weaker than Austria-Hungary’s.

Faced with the continent’s only direction for expansion, Austria-Hungary would absolutely not allow itself to lose control over the Balkan Peninsula, even if the adversary is the stronger Tsarist Russia.

Indeed, Emperor Franz Joseph I has already prepared to intervene in the war between Russia and the Ottoman Empire without British support.

If the British truly do not participate, Austria-Hungary would have no choice but to confront the difficulties, at least ensuring it garners sufficient benefits from the war.

True, Austria-Hungary’s plan isn’t to help the Ottoman Empire defeat Russia but to seize the opportunity, as the Ottoman Empire’s main forces engage Russia’s main army, to invade Serbia and Bosnia, occupying at least these two places.

Of course, this would only be acted upon confirming the British fully refrain from intervening in this war.

With British support, perhaps Austria-Hungary wouldn’t need to wage war but could snatch a large piece of fertile land from the Russians.

As an ally of Austria-Hungary, Spain was naturally on Austria-Hungary’s contact list.

Austria-Hungary didn’t reveal its plan, merely requesting Spain’s support for Austria-Hungary amidst the Balkan Peninsula’s situation.

In return, Austria-Hungary would convert all previous Spanish loans into interest-free loans and provide Spain with new industrial and financial assistance.

This industrial and financial aid is quite beneficial for Spain, so Carlo naturally wouldn’t mind diplomatically supporting Austria-Hungary.

Though the British may be meddlesome, when faced with major issues like Constantinople, the British stance is quite firm.

No matter how the Balkan Peninsula’s situation develops, Russia’s desire to monopolize the Balkan Peninsula is simply impossible. Supporting Austria-Hungary won’t harm Spain, and the benefits Austria-Hungary offers are scarce for Spain right now.

Regardless of Austria-Hungary’s covert preparations, overtly, neither Britain nor Austria-Hungary reacts too intensely.

This also led to increased confidence among Balkan nations in defeating the Ottoman Empire. Romania, Serbia, and Black Mountain, along with several countries and regions, announced joining Russia’s side a few days after its war declaration, jointly confronting the Ottoman Empire.

From the Balkan nations’ expectations for this war, it’s clear that the Ottoman Empire is indeed unwelcome in the Balkans.

The main reason being the Ottoman Empire’s overly harsh policies governing Balkan nations, and as times change, mere suppression had become utterly unfeasible.

A long history of resisting the Ottoman Empire has endowed the Balkan nations with a fierce and warlike spirit. This has made the Balkan nations’ combat abilities exceptionally strong, and later independent Balkan countries also have military strength not to be underestimated.

Following the Balkan nations’ allegiance with Russia, the Russian army on the European battlefield swiftly surpassed 200,000 troops.

In comparison, the Ottoman Empire’s concentrated European forces top only just over 200,000, indicating the Ottoman Empire had already lost its numerical advantage.

On the Caucasus battlefield, the Ottoman Empire similarly lacked numerical superiority. Under Muhammad Muhktar Pasha’s command, the Asian army only numbered 120,000, while combining the Caucasus Army Group and various ethnic militias united by Russia totaled soldiers exceeding 120,000 as well, making both sides even in troop count.