Empire Rising: Spain

Imagine the entire Tsarist Russia as a dam about to reach its capacity limit. The reforms of Alexander II raised the dam’s height by several meters, delaying the dam’s filling by a few decades.

But the dam will eventually fill, and when that moment comes, it will be when the decaying Tsarist Russia collapses.

Currently, examining the composition of forces and weaponry from both the Ottoman Empire and Tsarist Russia, Tsarist Russia holds an absolute advantage.

As one of the most populous countries in Europe, Russia’s standing army numbers a terrifying 720,000 infantry, equipped with nearly 3,000 artillery pieces, distributed across Russia’s vast territories in 16 armies.

Meanwhile, the Ottoman Empire, despite some reforms, has a total force barely over 400,000. Compared to Tsarist Russia’s more than 3,000 artillery pieces, the Ottoman Empire has around 800, a significant portion of which are rather outdated.

However, considering the continuous British aid, the gap in weaponry and equipment between the Ottoman and Russian forces is gradually narrowing.

Russia’s 720,000 troops are scattered across its vast territories, with only a limited number deployable in the Balkan Region.

The Ottoman Empire is not much better. Although it claims 400,000 troops, only about 280,000 are deployed in the Balkan Peninsula, with the remaining nearly 130,000 located on the Asia Minor Peninsula, separated from the Balkan Peninsula by the Constantinople Strait.

As time progresses to September 1876, the war between Serbia, Montenegro, and the Ottoman Empire becomes increasingly intense.

Indeed, it is war. Having existed as tributary states, Serbia and Montenegro declared war on the Ottoman Empire months ago, citing the reason as recovering lands unlawfully occupied by the Ottoman Empire.

Seeing the flames in the Balkan Peninsula intensify, Austria-Hungary and the United Kingdom could only call for rationality from both sides while providing as much support as possible to the Ottoman Empire, ensuring it holds an advantage in this war.

Within the month of September alone, the British transported a large amount of weaponry and food supplies to the Ottoman Empire, allowing it to engage Serbia and Montenegro on equal terms, and even hold the upper hand in most cases.

For the Ottoman Empire, this valuable British aid is akin to a life-saving straw. By late last year, a severe famine on the Asia Minor Peninsula had caused the empire’s finances to collapse, rendering it unable to maintain its existing military.

Amid the lively warfare on the Balkan Peninsula, Austria-Hungary is already contemplating how to handle Russia’s potential intervention.

Based on currently available information, it seems unlikely that the Russians would refrain from intervening in this war unless the United Kingdom officially declares its assistance to the Ottoman Empire.

However, that is clearly impossible. Unless there are sufficient interests, the British would not voluntarily join this war.

Even if the British were willing to join the war, would that be beneficial for Austria-Hungary? Perhaps not.

With the British directly involved, the Ottoman Empire would likely swiftly end the rebellion, without worrying about the Russian threat.

But subsequently, the Ottoman Empire would certainly be infiltrated by the British, making it much more challenging for Austria-Hungary to expand into the Balkan Region.

For these reasons, Austria-Hungary currently maintains an ambiguous stance. If forced to describe it, Austria-Hungary seems to wish for the disappearance of both Russia’s and Britain’s involvement in the Balkan Peninsula, leaving only Austria-Hungary as the dominant power.

Austria-Hungary has unusually maintained neutrality over the Balkan Peninsula situation, patiently awaiting the new diplomatic struggle between Britain and Russia.

Simultaneously, Franz Joseph I has ordered the Austrian-Hungarian army to standby, ensuring readiness to intervene in the Balkan war at any moment.

Although Austria-Hungary does not intend to intervene in the war, adhering to the principle that finders should have a share, no matter who ultimately triumphs in this conflict, Austria-Hungary must gain something.

If Russia defeats the Ottoman Empire, Franz Joseph I will choose to ally with the British, possibly threatening war to force Russian concessions, dividing the Balkan Peninsula into three parts rather than allowing Russia to annex it entirely.

If the Ottoman Empire defeats Russia, it would be the best news. Not only would the situation in the Balkan Peninsula remain status quo, but it would also further thwart the ambitions of Tsarist Russia.

But this possibility is far slimmer than the first option. Although both the Ottoman Empire and Tsarist Russia are declining empires, the Ottoman Empire is visibly at its end, while Tsarist Russia, though just surviving, is still a camel larger than a horse.

Since the end of the Franco-Prussian War, the wars on the Balkan Peninsula perhaps represent Europe’s most sensational news in recent times.

Thus, the Balkan Peninsula has not only attracted the attention of the three great powers but also many media outlets and Europeans interested in this news.