Empire Rising: Spain

Perhaps the countries most concerned with the unexpected incident between France and Spain are the United Kingdom and Germany, which have significant conflicts with France.

France has always been the main competitor to the UK’s colonial interests in Africa, so the dispute between France and Spain is something the British are happy to see. The main conflict between Germany and France is concentrated on the European Continent, so Germans are also pleased to see the breakdown of relations between France and Spain.

What differs slightly is that Germany hopes for a mutual defeat between France and Spain, or at the very least, to delay France for a period of time.

The United Kingdom only hopes that Spain will hold up France’s progress in African colonization; the British do not wish for any problems in France’s mainland. After all, compared to France, Germany is a significant threat. Without the restraint of France, Germany would become the largest threat to the UK on the European Continent, potentially surpassing even Russia.

Currently, in the eyes of the British, Russia poses the greatest threat, followed by France, and Germany. The reason is simple: Germany and France are both strong, but they counterbalance each other.

It’s Russia that has become a dire threat for the British due to the absence of surrounding countries that can restrain it.

Though Austria-Hungary is also a major power, it alone is not capable of restraining Russia.

At this point, Germany’s importance becomes evident. For the UK, Germany not only offsets the threat posed by France but also helps Austria-Hungary resist Russian expansion.

It’s precisely because Germany currently plays such a powerful role that the UK has tacitly allowed German Prime Minister Bismarck to diplomatically isolate France.

The current European situation is most suitable for the United Kingdom. France and Russia, the two biggest threats, are both restrained by Germany. With the assistance of Austria-Hungary, Germany can face either France or Russia independently without issue.

For this reason, as France and Russia cannot resist Germany independently, the UK has not facilitated the formation of the Franco-Russian Alliance.

The British are well aware that if the Franco-Russian Alliance were formed, Germany would not be a match for the combined forces of France and Russia. Even with the assistance of Austria-Hungary, at most, Germany could only hold up this powerful alliance.

At that point, Germany would need an Austria-Hungary-level ally to assist in resisting the threat of the Franco-Russian Alliance.

The British will never enter the fray personally. Therefore, this Austria-Hungary-level major power can only be Spain or Italy.

Although doing so could achieve balance on the European Continent, compared to current circumstances, it would be an extreme venture into a tightrope walk.

At that time, five of the seven major powers on the European Continent would directly join in the competition, and the two competing alliances would become forces too strong for the UK to unsettle.

This is the issue most concerning to the British and is the fundamental reason they are unwilling to facilitate the Franco-Russian Alliance.

Though powerful, the United Kingdom cannot resist France and Russia, or Germany and Austria-Hungary along with another major power united.

To put it differently, the UK does not allow for a coalition that exceeds its own strength on the European Continent. No matter how significant the conflicts between France and Germany, or Austria-Hungary and Russia are, for the British, these are minor squabbles.

But if it escalates to the extent of several major powers forming a military bloc, it becomes beyond the UK’s capacity to interfere. The resulting developments would exceed the expectations of the British Government, which is determined to control the European situation; and this is completely unacceptable.

When the French Government issued a severe protest on the surface but took no actual action, the governments of the UK and Germany knew that France and Spain would undoubtedly negotiate privately to resolve this unexpected incident.

As they say, between nations, there are no eternal enemies, only eternal interests. Although this incident between France and Spain seems significant, it does not affect either country substantially.

Both countries exercised a degree of restraint in this incident, preventing the world from evolving into a more intense conflict, or even a regional war.

Since it has not developed in a more intense direction, it implies that negotiations between France and Spain are highly likely.

If this drags on, mutual retaliation would only impact the colonial plans of both France and Spain. But if the two countries can reconcile and reach certain compromises on African colonization, they can ensure their colonial plans continue.

The possibility of reconciliation between Spain and France is something the UK and Germany do not wish to see.

They cannot openly interfere with the negotiations between France and Spain but can influence the choices of the two governments through other means.

What means? In fact, the best way is to use media pressure to force the two governments to opt for a more intense course.

Even if both countries eventually exercise restraint and avoid war, it will continue to damage the relationship between France and Spain. In this way, the possibility of reconciliation and joint African colonization between the two countries would be eliminated, which is good news for the UK and Germany.

With both the UK and Germany unwilling to see France and Spain quickly resolve their dispute, both governments have very harmoniously initiated a media campaign.